Nest Egg Duration Calculator
Free nest egg duration calculator. Find how long your retirement savings will last given withdrawals, returns, and inflation. Plan to never run out of money.
Longevity Risk Calculator
Free longevity risk calculator. Estimate survival probabilities by age using SSA actuarial tables, then see portfolio survival rates at each longevity milestone.
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Median Life Expectancy
Age 84
19 more years (50% probability)
Portfolio Lasts To
Age 105+
Outlasts longevity risk
Survival Probability by Age
| Target Age | Male | Female | Joint (either) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 75 | 79.20% | 85.00% | 96.90% | |
| Age 80 | 62.70% | 71.00% | 89.20% | |
| Age 85 | 42.30% | 51.30% | 71.90% | |
| Age 90 | 21.50% | 27.90% | 43.40% | |
| Age 95 | 6.80% | 9.10% | 15.30% | |
| Age 100 | 1.10% | 1.30% | 2.30% |
Portfolio vs Longevity
| Age | Withdrawal | Balance | Alive Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | $40,000.00 | $1,000,000.00 | 100.00% |
| 66 | $41,200.00 | $1,017,600.00 | 98.50% |
| 70 | $46,371.00 | $1,085,307.00 | 91.40% |
| 75 | $53,757.00 | $1,159,185.00 | 79.20% |
| 80 | $62,319.00 | $1,211,350.00 | 62.70% |
| 85 | $72,244.00 | $1,227,021.00 | 42.30% |
| 90 | $83,751.00 | $1,185,233.00 | 21.50% |
| 95 | $97,090.00 | $1,056,555.00 | 6.80% |
| 100 | $112,554.00 | $800,010.00 | 1.10% |
| 105 | $130,482.00 | $358,917.00 | 0.00% |
Mortality rates are simplified approximations based on SSA period life tables. Individual longevity varies with health, lifestyle, and genetics. Portfolio projections assume constant real returns. Consult a financial advisor.
Planning notes, formulas, and examples
About the Longevity Risk Calculator
The Longevity Risk Calculator estimates your probability of living to various ages based on Social Security Administration actuarial life tables, then shows how those probabilities interact with your portfolio's sustainability. Longevity risk — the danger of outliving your savings — is the biggest financial threat retirees face.
A 65-year-old man has roughly a 35% chance of reaching 90 and a 15% chance of reaching 95. For women, those odds are even higher. Joint survival probability for couples is higher still. This calculator helps you understand what "planning to age X" really means in terms of probability.
By combining longevity probabilities with portfolio depletion modeling, you can see the true risk profile of your retirement plan. If your portfolio is projected to last 25 years but you have a 40% chance of living 30 years, the mismatch becomes obvious — and actionable. This calculator transforms abstract probabilities into concrete planning scenarios so you can decide whether to save more, spend less, annuitize a portion of your assets, or accept the calculated risk.
When This Page Helps
Most people underestimate their life expectancy. The average is just an average — half of retirees will live longer. Planning only to the average leaves a 50% chance of running out of money. This calculator shows the probability spectrum so you can decide how much risk to accept. It turns an abstract statistical concept into a practical planning tool tied directly to your money.
How to Use the Inputs
- Enter your current age and gender.
- Review your survival probabilities at key milestone ages.
- Enter your portfolio balance, withdrawal rate, and expected return.
- See the portfolio survival overlay at each longevity milestone.
- Adjust to find a plan that works even at the high-probability tail.
- Consider joint survival if planning for a couple.
Formula used
Survival Probability = Product of (1 - mortality rate) for each year from current age to target age
Mortality rates from SSA Period Life Tables
Portfolio Duration: years until balance = 0 given starting balance, withdrawal rate, and return
Joint Survival = 1 - (1 - P_male) × (1 - P_female)Example Calculation
Result: Probability of reaching: 80: 70%, 85: 53%, 90: 35%, 95: 15%, 100: 4%
A 65-year-old male has approximately a 70% chance of living to 80, 53% to 85, 35% to 90, 15% to 95, and 4% to 100. If your portfolio only lasts to age 87, there's about a 45% chance you'll outlive it.
Tips & Best Practices
- Plan for at least age 90-95 to cover the probability tail. Planning only to average life expectancy leaves a 50% shortfall risk.
- Joint planning is critical: for a 65-year-old couple, there's a 72% chance at least one partner reaches 90.
- Annuities can hedge longevity risk by providing guaranteed income for life.
- Healthier-than-average individuals should plan for even longer horizons.
- Delaying Social Security to age 70 is one of the most effective longevity insurance strategies.
- Consider your family history of longevity when assessing personal probability.
The Longevity Paradox
Longer life is a blessing but creates a financial challenge: the longer you live, the more money you need, but the money you have must last longer too. A retiree who lives to 95 needs 50% more savings than one who lives to 85, but most planning tools use a single life expectancy number.
Probability-Based Planning
Rather than planning to a single age, probability-based planning considers the full spectrum. A 10% survival probability at age 97 means 1 in 10 retirees will still be alive then. Whether to plan for that depends on your risk tolerance and resources. A secure baseline (Social Security + annuity) covering essential expenses, plus a portfolio for discretionary spending, is a robust strategy.
The Couple's Challenge
Joint planning is especially important. Even if each partner expects to live to about 85, the probability that at least one lives to 92 is quite high. The surviving spouse often faces higher per-person costs (loss of one Social Security check, higher tax bracket as single filer). Always plan for the survivor scenario.
Sources & Methodology
Last updated:
Methodology
This worksheet uses simplified age-by-age mortality-rate tables for men and women derived from Social Security period life-table patterns to estimate survival probabilities at milestone ages. It then overlays those probabilities on a constant-return portfolio depletion model built from the entered balance, withdrawal rate, inflation assumption, and return assumption, so users can compare portfolio duration against the probability of still being alive at each age.
It is a probability-and-cash-flow planning tool rather than a personalized actuarial forecast. The page does not model health status, family history, taxes, changing spending, annuitization, or volatile market returns, so the output should be read as a structured stress test of longevity risk rather than as a literal prediction.
Sources
- Actuarial Life Table (Social Security Administration) — SSA period life-table reference used to anchor the worksheet’s mortality and survival-probability assumptions.
- Life Tables (Social Security Administration) — SSA actuarial-study reference explaining period life tables and the mortality framework behind survival estimates.
- What can new retirees withdraw from a portfolio? (Vanguard) — Retirement-spending research used for portfolio-duration and withdrawal-risk context.
Frequently Asked Questions
Longevity risk is the possibility of outliving your retirement savings. It's considered the single greatest financial risk in retirement because it interacts with every other risk: market downturns, inflation, healthcare costs, and spending decisions all become worse problems the longer you live.
SSA period life tables represent average mortality for the U.S. population. Individual life expectancy can vary significantly based on health, genetics, lifestyle, and socioeconomic factors. Healthier, wealthier individuals typically live longer than tables suggest. Consider adjusting upward if you're in good health.
Joint survival is the probability that at least one member of a couple is alive at a given age. It's always higher than individual survival. For a 65-year-old couple (male + female), the probability of at least one living to 90 is approximately 72%, even though individual probabilities are 35% and 45%.
Financial planners typically recommend planning to at least age 90-95. More conservative planning targets age 95-100. The right answer depends on your risk tolerance and available resources. Planning to age 95 covers roughly 85-90% of the population.
Key strategies: (1) Delay Social Security to age 70 for the highest guaranteed income; (2) Purchase a lifetime annuity with a portion of savings; (3) Maintain a conservative withdrawal rate in early retirement; (4) Keep a reserve fund for extended longevity; (5) Ensure adequate healthcare coverage. Combining several of these approaches creates a layered defense that protects you even if one strategy underperforms.
Historical trends show steady improvement in longevity, though gains slowed in recent years. Medical advances, improved nutrition, and reduced smoking have extended life expectancy significantly. A child born today has a reasonable chance of living past 100. For retirement planning, it's prudent to assume continued improvement.
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